Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/19/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
• Run Line: Brewers -1.5 135, Cardinals 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Brewers -130, Cardinals 110
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 54%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 46%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 51.38%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 48.62%

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 19, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. This National League Central matchup promises an exciting game between the home team Cardinals and the visiting Brewers.

The Cardinals currently hold a record of 9-10 this season, indicating a below-average performance so far. In contrast, the Brewers boast a strong record of 11-6, showcasing their excellent season thus far.

Taking the mound for the Cardinals is right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson. Gibson has started three games this year, with a win-loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 6.16, which is considered poor. However, his 4.52 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

Opposing Gibson will be Freddy Peralta, the Brewers' right-handed pitcher. Peralta has started three games this season, with a perfect 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.55. His 1.85 SIERA indicates that he has been performing even better than his ERA suggests.

The Cardinals offense ranks as the 25th best in MLB this season, while the Brewers offense ranks as the second best. However, the Cardinals excel in team batting average and home runs, ranking 7th and 5th respectively. The Brewers, on the other hand, have a strong presence in stolen bases, ranking 10th in the league.

Looking at the betting odds, the Cardinals are considered the underdogs with a moneyline set at +110, implying a win probability of 46%. The Brewers, with a moneyline of -130, have a higher win probability of 54%.

With the Brewers' strong offense and Peralta's elite pitching, they have the advantage in this matchup. However, the Cardinals' home-field advantage and the potential for a better performance from Gibson could make this a closely contested game.

Keep an eye on the Cardinals' best hitter, who has been performing well in recent games, as well as the Brewers' standout player, who has been making an impact both at the plate and on the basepaths.

Overall, this game promises an intriguing battle between two division rivals. The Cardinals will look to overcome their below-average season and challenge the Brewers, who are having a great year. With both teams hungry for a win, expect an exciting and competitive game at Busch Stadium.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jake Bauers has strong power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Gibson is a pitch-to-contact type (16th percentile K%) — great news for Bauers.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected offense today (.311 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .345 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Because groundball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over groundball bats, Kyle Gibson and his 47.8% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in today's outing going up against 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Masyn Winn's footspeed has declined this year. His 29.13 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.41 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen projects as the best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.87 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+8.83 Units / 16% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.85 Units / 77% ROI)

Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction: Brewers 3.62 - Cardinals 3.28

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