The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals will finish up their weekend series at Busch Stadium on Sunday afternoon. This game has meaningful implications for the Brew Crew. The Brewers are one win away from clinching the NL Central after beating St. Louis in extra innings Saturday. They are favored to do just that with one of their best pitchers set to start on Sunday. Here, I break down this NL Central matchup and give you my Brewers vs Cardinals prediction today.
Our Brewers vs Cardinals Pick
- Pick: Brewers ML
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 2:15 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL)
- Stadium: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
- Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin & FanDuel Sports Network Missouri
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Freddy Peralta has been one of the more reliable starters in the NL this season. He owns a 2.65 ERA, striking out around 10.3 batters per 9 innings, and holding opponents to a low batting average under .200. He has had several recent starts with zero earned runs allowed. Against St. Louis this year, he’s fared well in past outings. Matthew Liberatore has had an inconsistent year for the Cardinals. He is 7-12 with a 4.30 ERA. He has decent strikeout totals, but is also allowing too many base runners and too much hard contact. Liberatore lacks the consistency Peralta has demonstrated.
Recent team streaks
- The Brewers have won four of their last five games and will look to lock up a division title with a win today.
- The Cardinals have dropped three of their last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | Over 5.5 strikeouts |
| Christian Yelich | Over 0.5 home runs |
| Nolan Arenado | Over 1.5 total bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Milwaukee leads the season series 7-5 over the Cardinals this season.
- This is the final meeting scheduled between these teams in the 2025 regular season.
- The over/under is 1-1 in the first two games of this three-game set.
Brewers vs Cardinals Model Projection
Score Projection: Brewers 5 – Cardinals 2
Win Probability: Brewers 55%, Cardinals 45%
Final Thoughts
Everything points toward a Brewers win Sunday. Peralta’s strong season and favorable matchup against St. Louis should give Milwaukee the edge, especially as they seek to lock up the division with one more win. The Cardinals may show fight early, but Liberatore will need near-perfect command to slow down the Brewers’ offense. The Brewers moneyline is my best bet for this game and I don’t mind the idea of laying the runline with them either.
