Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 4/23/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

On April 23, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Oracle Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. In their last encounter, the Giants suffered a blowout loss to fall to 15-9 on the season. Meanwhile, the Brewers sit at 13-11, having an above-average season but struggling to find consistency.

The Giants are projected to start Logan Webb, who is enjoying an elite season so far, ranked as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Webb has a solid 2-1 record with an impressive 2.40 ERA. However, he faces a challenging task against a high-strikeout Giants lineup, which ranks 6th in most strikeouts this season. Webb's projections indicate he may pitch around 6.5 innings while allowing 1.9 earned runs, although his tendency to give up 5.6 hits and 1.3 walks might create trouble.

Freddy Peralta will take the mound for the Brewers, and while he also boasts a 2-1 record with a stellar 1.91 ERA, his xFIP of 3.59 suggests he might be due for some regression. Peralta is a high-strikeout pitcher, with a strikeout rate of 29.0%, but he must contend with a Giants offense that, despite ranking 17th overall, has shown flashes of potential.

With the Giants’ bullpen ranked 3rd best in MLB, they hold a distinct advantage late in the game. The odds favor the Giants, who have a moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of just 3.75 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair. As both teams look to gain momentum, this matchup could hinge on the performances of their respective starting pitchers.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #28 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Christian Yelich will probably have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 6.2% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #29 squad in baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb's cutter usage has jumped by 8.9% from last season to this one (2.6% to 11.5%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Mike Yastrzemski is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.20 Units / 53% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+10.60 Units / 212% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.27, San Francisco Giants 3.76

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Logan Webb - Giants

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