Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/20/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 20, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers
  • Adam Mazur - Padres

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are set to host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 20, 2024, at Petco Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Padres enter the game with a 38-40 record, signifying an average season thus far. Meanwhile, the Brewers are having a stellar campaign with a 43-30 record, positioning them as one of the stronger teams in the league.

Projected to take the mound for the Padres is right-hander Adam Mazur, who has struggled this season. With a 7.82 ERA and an 0-2 record in three starts, Mazur's performance has left much to be desired. However, his 6.87 xFIP, nearly a full point lower than his ERA, suggests some misfortune and potential for improvement. Mazur will face a patient Brewers lineup that ranks 4th in walks, potentially posing a significant challenge for a pitcher with a 21.3% walk rate.

On the other side, the Brewers will send Bryse Wilson to the hill. Wilson has fared better than Mazur with a 4-3 record and a solid 3.84 ERA over 11 starts and 17 bullpen appearances. Nonetheless, his 4.69 xFIP implies he's been somewhat fortunate this year. The Padres' offense, ranked 5th in least strikeouts, could capitalize on Wilson's low strikeout rate (18.8%).

Offensively, both teams feature potent lineups. The Padres rank 10th overall but are notably strong in batting average (2nd) and competent in home runs (12th) and stolen bases (11th). The Brewers own the 6th best offense, excelling in batting average (7th) and ranking 2nd in stolen bases.

Bullpen-wise, the Padres hold the 8th best ranking, providing a solid back-end to their pitching staff, while the Brewers boast an even stronger bullpen, ranked 4th. These rankings suggest that if the game is close late, both teams can rely on their relievers.

In recent individual performances, Luis Campusano stands out for the Padres, hitting .500 with a 1.667 OPS over the last week, while Joseph Ortiz has been a key contributor for the Brewers with a .895 OPS and 4 RBIs in his last five games.

Overall, the betting markets project a close game with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. Given the Padres’ strong potential to capitalize on Wilson's vulnerabilities and Mazur’s potential for a turnaround, they may have a slight edge in what should be a closely contested series opener.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Tallying 14.5 outs per start this year on average, Bryse Wilson places him the 16th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Joey Ortiz has been lucky this year, posting a .368 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .056 disparity.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Adam Mazur will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Manny Machado has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 8.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 58 games (+8.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+8.75 Units / 35% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.54 vs San Diego Padres 4.44

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