Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks 6/23/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 23, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
  • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres will host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 23, 2024, at Petco Park in the final game of their four-game series. The Padres, with a 40-40 record, are looking to gain some momentum in what's been an average season, while the Brewers, at 44-32, are enjoying a strong campaign.

On the mound for the Padres will be Michael King, who is ranked 32nd among starting pitchers by advanced-stat Power Rankings. King's solid performance this season has been a bright spot for San Diego, and he'll be looking to capitalize on his home-field advantage. In contrast, the Brewers will counter with Tobias Myers, who has struggled and is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league according to the same Power Rankings.

San Diego's offensive prowess could be a significant factor in this matchup. The Padres boast the 2nd-best team batting average in MLB and rank 9th in home runs, indicating a potent and well-rounded lineup. Over the last seven games, Luis Campusano has been a standout, hitting .300 with a 1.033 OPS, including one home run in his last five games.

Milwaukee's offense, while not as powerful as San Diego's, still holds its own. They rank 7th in team batting average and 2nd in stolen bases, showcasing their speed on the base paths. Willy Adames has been the Brewers' best hitter recently, racking up six hits, six RBIs, and two home runs over his last seven games, with a .942 OPS.

The betting markets see this as a close game, with the Padres' moneyline set at -130 and the Brewers' at +110, giving San Diego a slight edge. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Padres to have a 62% win probability, suggesting they have a better chance than the betting markets indicate. The projections also favor the Padres to score 5.04 runs, whereas the Brewers are projected to score 4.13 runs.

Considering the pitching matchup and the Padres' offensive strength, this game could tilt in favor of San Diego. Backed by Michael King on the mound and a high-powered offense, the Padres have a solid chance to close out the series with a win.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Milwaukee Brewers will tally 4.13 runs on average in this game: the 5th-least of all teams today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

It may be best to expect weaker performance for the San Diego Padres offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.55 Units / 75% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 75 games (+5.00 Units / 6% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.13 vs San Diego Padres 5.04

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.