The Milwaukee Brewers will visit the San Diego Padres on Monday night. The Brewers have secured the NL Central crown but still have motivation to protect their seeding. The Padres are still fighting to lock up a Wild Card berth and to keep pressure on the Dodgers at the top of the NL West. Before this matchup begins from San Diego, continue reading to get my Brewers vs Padres prediction for Monday’s biggest game in MLB.
Our Brewers vs Padres Pick
- Pick: Under 7.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres
- Date & Time: Monday, September 22, 2025, 9:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta (Brewers) vs Nick Pivetta (Padres)
- Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: SDPA and FDSWI
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Freddy Peralta enters with a 17-6 record and a 2.65 ERA for the Brewers. He’s allowed zero or one run in six of his last seven starts. However, his walk rate is high, which raises his risk in tight spots. On the other side, Nick Pivetta is 13-5 with a 2.81 ERA. He has been stronger at home, where his ERA drops further, and home runs allowed are fewer. That gives San Diego a small edge in starting pitching under these conditions.
Recent team streaks
- The Brewers lost two out of three games to the St. Louis Cardinals in their most recent series and will try to rebound from that here.
- The Padres have won two games in a row over the Chicago White Sox going into this matchup from Petco Park.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Over / Under |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Xander Bogaerts | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Ryan O’Hearn | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Padres are 2-1 against the Brewers so far this season.
- All three games between these teams earlier in the season went under their respective totals.
- Milwaukee enters this game with a road record of 44-34.
- San Diego is 47-28 at home for the 2025 season.
Brewers vs Padres Model Projection
Score Projection: Padres 4 – Brewers 3
Win Probability: Padres 52%, Brewers 48%
Final Thoughts
This is set to be a close game from San Diego on Monday night. Both starting pitchers are excellent and the Padres have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball. I think we are in for a low-scoring game no matter which of these playoff-caliber teams ends up getting the win. Rather than take my chances with either side, I’ll play the under at 7.5 runs with the expectations that the pitching staffs have plenty of success tonight.
