Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Preview – 6/22/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodriguez - Brewers
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers are set to clash on June 22, 2024, at Petco Park. This National League matchup features two teams in contrasting form this season. The Padres, sitting at a 39-40 record, are in the midst of an average season. In contrast, the Brewers boast a 44-31 record, indicative of a strong campaign.

On the mound, the Padres will start right-hander Randy Vasquez, who has struggled with a 1-4 win/loss record and a troublesome 5.70 ERA over nine starts. However, Vasquez's 4.47 xFIP, a metric indicating his expected fielding independent pitching, suggests he has been unlucky and could improve moving forward. Furthermore, Vasquez's control has been solid, walking just 4.7% of batters, a potential advantage against the patient Brewers, who are 3rd in walks drawn this season.

The Brewers counter with Carlos Rodriguez, another right-hander, who has had a tough start to his season with an 0-2 record and a 6.48 ERA in just two starts. Intriguingly, like Vasquez, Rodriguez has a significant discrepancy between his ERA and his 4.59 xFIP, signaling bad luck and possible future improvement.

Offensively, both teams have significant firepower. The Padres' lineup ranks 10th overall and 2nd in batting average, while the Brewers rank 6th in overall offense and 7th in batting average. The Padres have also showcased power, ranking 9th in home runs, whereas the Brewers have been adept on the bases, ranking 2nd in steals.

In their latest outings, Jackson Merrill has been the Padres' best hitter, recording three home runs and an impressive 1.070 OPS over the last week. For the Brewers, Willy Adames has been hot, with two home runs and a .926 OPS in the same period.

Both bullpens are highly ranked, with the Brewers at 5th and the Padres at 7th, according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could be a deciding factor in what betting markets anticipate to be a close contest, with the Padres having a slight edge at -115 moneyline and a 51% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Padres' offense to continue their strong performance, which could tip the scales in this pivotal game.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Sal Frelick has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.2-mph dropping to 80.1-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, David Peralta has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .289 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .333.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.85 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 75 games (+9.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 23 games at home (+18.40 Units / 80% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.63 vs San Diego Padres 4.2

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