Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 25, 2024, at PNC Park. This National League Central matchup features two teams with contrasting seasons. The Pirates, with a 73-84 record, have struggled this year, while the Brewers have been strong contenders, boasting a 90-67 record.

The Brewers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, implying a 58% chance of victory. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a slightly lower win probability of 57%. The Pirates, meanwhile, are underdogs at +130, with an implied win probability of 42%, but the projections suggest a marginally better chance at 43%.

Pittsburgh will send Luis Ortiz to the mound, who, despite a respectable 3.43 ERA, is ranked 202nd among MLB starters, indicating some underlying struggles, particularly with his 4.64 xFIP. Ortiz's projected performance today includes 5.1 innings pitched, with 2.8 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 4.1 strikeouts. The Pirates' offense has been lackluster, ranking 28th overall, with particular struggles in power, ranking 26th in home runs.

Milwaukee counters with Freddy Peralta, the 29th-ranked starting pitcher, known for his high strikeout rate (27.4 K%). Peralta's projected outing includes 5.0 innings, 2.1 earned runs, 4.4 hits, and 5.8 strikeouts. The Brewers' offense is a top-10 unit, ranking 8th in batting average and 17th in home runs, providing a balanced threat.

In their last meeting, the Brewers secured a victory, further solidifying their position in the playoff race. As the series continues, Milwaukee will look to capitalize on their strengths and maintain momentum, while the Pirates aim to play spoiler in front of their home crowd.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Sal Frelick's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 85.5-mph mark last season has dropped to 83.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 7.4% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #22 squad in the game this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Luis L. Ortiz's cut-fastball rate has increased by 19.7% from last season to this one (0.3% to 20%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Billy Cook is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Joey Bart pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+12.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 88 of their last 155 games (+9.45 Units / 5% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+8.15 Units / 22% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.07 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.09

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