Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Picks 4/23/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Wade Miley - Brewers
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
• Run Line: Brewers -1.5 140, Pirates 1.5 -165
• Money Line: Brewers -120, Pirates 100
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 52%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 49.09%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 50.91%

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

On April 23, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers at PNC Park. As a National League Central matchup, this game holds significance for both teams in their divisional race. The Pirates, with a season record of 12-11, are having an above-average season, while the Brewers boast an impressive record of 14-7, positioning them well in the standings.

The Pirates will be the home team for this game, looking to utilize the advantage of their home field. They are projected to start Bailey Falter, a left-handed pitcher who has had a mixed performance this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Falter ranks as the #242 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is one of the worst in the league. With a 4.05 ERA and a 5.20 xFIP, Falter's performance suggests that he may be due for a regression in future games.

On the other side, the Brewers will send Wade Miley to the mound. Miley, another left-handed pitcher, has had a rough start to the season with an ERA of 5.14. Our projections indicate that Miley is one of the worst pitchers in MLB, with a 5.99 xFIP suggesting that his performance may decline further.

When it comes to offense, the Pirates rank 20th in MLB this season, indicating that they have room for improvement. Their batting average ranks 26th, home runs 23rd, and stolen bases 12th out of 30 teams. In contrast, the Brewers have been impressive offensively, ranking 2nd overall. However, their batting average ranks 27th, home runs 22nd, and stolen bases 10th. These rankings reflect the underlying talent of the teams, regardless of their year-to-date performance.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Pirates have the 3rd best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Brewers' bullpen ranks 11th, indicating an average performance. This could impact the late innings of the game and potentially play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

Considering the betting odds, both teams have an implied win probability of 50%, indicating that this will be a closely contested matchup. The Pirates' current moneyline is set at -110, while the Brewers' moneyline is also at -110. With an average implied team total of 4.00 runs for each team, this game has the potential to be low-scoring.

As we approach this game, keep an eye on key players who have been performing well recently. For the Pirates, Alika Williams has been their standout hitter over the last 7 games. He has a batting average of 0.400 and an impressive 1.155 OPS during this period. Meanwhile, Brice Turang has been the Brewers' best hitter, recording 5 hits, 4 runs, 1 home run, and 2 stolen bases over the last week.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the Pirates and Brewers. While the Brewers have been performing better this season, the Pirates have the advantage of being the home team. With both teams relying on left-handed pitchers who have struggled, it remains to be seen who will come out on top.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the 5th-best out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In today's game, Gary Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.8% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 12.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Typically, batters like Oneil Cruz who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Wade Miley.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 65 games (+15.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 88 games (+9.15 Units / 8% ROI)

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction: Brewers 4.3 - Pirates 4.17

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