Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/24/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers
  • Josh Fleming - Pirates
• Run Line: Brewers 1.5 -195, Pirates -1.5 165
• Money Line: Brewers 100, Pirates -120
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 48%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 52%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 42.46%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 57.54%

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

On April 24, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face the Pittsburgh Pirates in a National League Central matchup at PNC Park. The Pirates, with a record of 13-11 this season, are having an above-average season, while the Brewers boast a great season with a record of 14-8.

The Pirates will be the home team for this game, and they will be looking to capitalize on their recent success. In their last game against the Brewers, the Pirates secured a narrow 2-1 victory. The game was expected to be close, with the Pirates having a closing Moneyline price of -105 and an implied win probability of 49%. The Brewers, on the other hand, had a closing Moneyline price of -115 and an implied win probability of 51%. Both teams fought hard, but the Pirates came out on top.

The Pirates will be starting left-handed pitcher Josh Fleming, who has been performing well this season. With an ERA of 1.74, Fleming has been an excellent asset for the Pirates. However, his 3.67 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse going forward. On the other side, the Brewers will be starting right-handed pitcher Bryse Wilson. Wilson has shown promise with a 3.29 ERA, but his 3.86 xERA and 4.74 FIP indicate that he may have been lucky and could face challenges in future performances.

In terms of offense, the Brewers have been one of the best teams in the league this season, ranking second overall. Their lineup, led by standout hitter William Contreras, has been consistently producing runs. Contreras has recorded 19 runs, 20 RBIs, and 4 home runs with an impressive batting average of .341.

On the other hand, the Pirates offense ranks in the bottom half of the league, sitting at the 20th spot. However, their best hitter, Bryan Reynolds, has been a bright spot for the team. Reynolds has notched 13 RBIs, along with a batting average of .261.

When considering the overall matchup, THE BAT X projects the Pirates as the favorite with a projected win probability of 56%. The Brewers are considered the underdogs with a projected win probability of 44%. The projections anticipate a close game, with the Pirates averaging 4.32 runs and the Brewers averaging 4.02 runs.

Both teams have strong bullpens, with the Pirates ranking third and the Brewers ranking ninth in MLB. This could potentially play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of the game.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Bryse Wilson has been lucky since the start of last season, compiling a 2.69 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.80 — a 2.11 gap.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Batters such as Rhys Hoskins with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Josh Fleming who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Rhys Hoskins pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.1% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Ranking in the 3rd percentile, Josh Fleming has posted a 10.1% strikeout rate since the start of last season.

• One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.

Oneil Cruz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz, Michael A. Taylor).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 139 games (+15.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.58 Units / 20% ROI)

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction: Brewers 3.94 - Pirates 4.39

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