Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/22/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 22, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ross - Brewers
  • Jared Jones - Pirates
• Run Line: Brewers 1.5 -195, Pirates -1.5 165
• Money Line: Brewers 115, Pirates -135
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 45%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 42.58%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 57.42%

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the Milwaukee Brewers in an exciting National League Central matchup at PNC Park on April 22, 2024. The Pirates, with an average season record of 11-11, will be looking to improve their standing against the Brewers, who are having a great season with a 14-6 record.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jared Jones, who has shown promise this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Jones ranks as the #72 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating that he is above average. In his four starts this season, Jones has a 1-2 win/loss record with an impressive ERA of 3.13. His xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward.

The Brewers will counter with right-handed pitcher Joe Ross, who has struggled this season. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that Ross is a below-average pitcher by MLB standards. In his three starts, Ross has a 1-1 win/loss record with an ERA of 4.91. However, his xERA and FIP suggest that he has been unlucky and could see improvement in his performance.

The Pirates' offense ranks as the #19 best in MLB this season, while the Brewers have the #2 ranked offense. However, the Pirates have struggled in team batting average (#26) and home runs (#23), while the Brewers excel in stolen bases (#10).

In terms of betting odds, the Pirates are slight favorites with a moneyline of -130, indicating a 54% implied win probability. The Brewers have a moneyline of +110, giving them a 46% implied win probability.

Based on the projections, Jared Jones is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out 5.8 batters. However, he is projected to struggle with allowing hits (4.4) and walks (1.7). Joe Ross is expected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 4.8 batters. He is also projected to struggle with hits (5.1) and walks (1.8).

Overall, this promises to be a close game between two division rivals. The Pirates will rely on Jared Jones to continue his strong performance, while the Brewers will look for Joe Ross to bounce back. With the Pirates' strong bullpen and the Brewers' potent offense, it could be a battle of strengths.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Joe Ross is projected to average 4.9 hits in today's game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Rhys Hoskins has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's game, Rhys Hoskins is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Jared Jones in the 92nd percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-most strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 25.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 104 games (+13.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.08 Units / 17% ROI)

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction: Brewers 3.85 - Pirates 4.26

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