Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 5/25/2025

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 25, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings. The Pirates sit at 19-34, marking a disappointing season, while the Brewers, at 25-28, are just below average. This matchup is critical for both teams as they look to gain momentum in a tightly contested National League Central.

The Pirates are projected to start left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, who has a mixed record of 3-3 with a solid ERA of 3.50. However, his xFIP of 4.59 suggests he may have been fortunate and could struggle moving forward. Falter's ability to pitch deep into games has been average, projecting to go 5.1 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs. His strikeout rate is concerning, averaging just 3.9 strikeouts per game.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with right-hander Logan Henderson, who has been impressive in his limited starts. Henderson holds a perfect 3-0 record with an outstanding ERA of 1.69, although his xFIP of 2.40 indicates he might also be riding a wave of good fortune. He projects to pitch 4.7 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, but his strikeout rate of 4.7 is below-average.

Offensively, both teams have struggled this season, with the Pirates ranking 29th in the league in team batting average and home runs. The Brewers aren't faring much better, sitting 25th in those categories. However, the Pirates excel in stolen bases, ranking 6th, which could play a role in their strategy against Henderson, who allows a high flyball percentage.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets view this as a closely contested matchup, yet the Brewers are favored. The projections suggest the Pirates have a chance to outperform their current odds, especially if Falter can capitalize on any weaknesses in the Brewers' lineup.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Logan Henderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #26 HR venue among all major league parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh's #3-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Sal Frelick, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Milwaukee Brewers (20.1 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter has used his four-seam fastball 5.8% less often this season (42.7%) than he did last season (48.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games (+12.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 47 games (+8.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 31% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.13, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.3

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Henderson - Brewers
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

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