Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 5/23/2025

On May 23, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Milwaukee Brewers at PNC Park for the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Pirates holding a record of 17-34 and the Brewers at 25-26. The Pirates’ poor performance has them ranked as the 29th best offense in MLB, while the Brewers sit at 25th. Yesterday, the Pirates continued their difficult stretch with a loss to the Brewers, showcasing their struggles at the plate.

Pirates' ace Paul Skenes, projected to start, currently holds the distinction of being the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.44 over 10 starts. However, his peripheral indicators suggest he might not maintain this level of performance moving forward. Skenes has averaged 5.9 strikeouts and is projected to allow 1.8 earned runs today, which is elite. He will need to keep the Brewers grounded, as they possess a lineup with minimal power, having hit just 41 home runs this season, ranking 5th least in the league.

Freddy Peralta, starting for Milwaukee, has also been solid with a 2.59 ERA, ranking him 36th among starters. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing around 2.4 earned runs. The Pirates' offense has struggled against flyball pitchers like Peralta, who might find advantages against a lineup that has only produced 33 home runs this season, ranking 2nd least in MLB.

Given the current odds, the Pirates hold a moneyline of -120, indicating they are expected to win a close game. However, the projections hint that the Pirates could outperform expectations, especially with Skenes’ elite talent on the mound.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Typically, hitters like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Paul Skenes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 6.2% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #30 offense in the majors this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Given that flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Paul Skenes (48.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 4 FB hitters in the opposing club's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ke'Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Andrew McCutchen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+10.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+8.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 33% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.63, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.04

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

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