Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 5/22/2025

On May 22, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Milwaukee Brewers in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at PNC Park. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Pirates sitting at 17-33 and the Brewers just a notch better at 24-26. Their last games were quite telling: the Pirates managed to pull off a 3-1 victory, while the Brewers faltered, losing 8-4.

Despite their poor records, this game is vital as both teams look to turn their seasons around. Pittsburgh's starting pitcher, Michael Burrows, is projected to pitch an average of 4.4 innings and allow around 2.2 earned runs. Burrows, currently ranked as the 148th best starter in MLB, shows signs of struggle, particularly with an average of 4.3 hits allowed and 1.5 walks per outing. The projections suggest that the Pirates' offense, which ranks 29th in MLB, may find it challenging to capitalize on potential pitching mistakes.

Carlos Rodriguez, taking the mound for Milwaukee, also presents a below-average performance this season. His projections indicate that he will pitch 5.0 innings with an average of 2.5 earned runs, 4.8 hits, and 1.8 walks. However, Rodriguez's recent performance indicates room for improvement, as he aims to help stabilize a Brewers’ offense that ranks 25th overall.

Interestingly, both teams excel in stolen bases, with Pittsburgh ranked 5th and Milwaukee holding the 2nd spot. This could prove to be a strategic advantage as they seek to manufacture runs. Given the close odds, with the Pirates at +105 and the Brewers at -125, it appears oddsmakers expect a tightly contested game. If Burrows can limit the damage and the Pirates' offense finds a spark, they may have a legitimate shot at claiming victory.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Carlos Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #26 HR venue in the league in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Isaac Collins has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.8-mph dropping to 34-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers batters as a unit place 30th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 6.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Given the 5.9 disparity between Mike Burrows's 2.70 ERA and his 8.60 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball since the start of last season and figures to see negative regression in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Extreme groundball bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Carlos Rodriguez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 81st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+8.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 33% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.86, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.4

• Date: May 22, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodriguez - Brewers
  • Michael Burrows - Pirates

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.