Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 6/1/2025

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 1, 2025, both teams are looking to make strides in their respective seasons. The Phillies boast a solid 36-22 record, showcasing their strong performance thus far, while the Brewers sit at 31-28, fighting to stay above .500. In their last matchup, the Brewers emerged victorious, continuing their momentum and bolstering their playoff hopes.

On the mound, the Phillies will send out Ranger Suarez, who has been impressive this season with a 4-0 record and a stellar 2.97 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he has had a bit of luck, as his 3.59 SIERA indicates he might not maintain this level of success moving forward. Suarez is projected to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters, which is a bit below average. The Brewers will counter with Jose Quintana, whose 2.65 ERA looks good on the surface, but his 4.22 xFIP suggests he may be due for a downturn.

The Phillies' offense ranks 5th in MLB, showcasing their ability to put runs on the board. With a high implied team total of 4.81 runs, they are well-positioned to capitalize on Quintana's potential struggles. In contrast, the Brewers' offense ranks a disappointing 25th, which could further hinder their chances against a solid Phillies lineup.

With the Phillies' strong hitting and Suarez's potential for success, they emerge as heavy favorites in this matchup. The odds are stacked in their favor, making this a crucial game for the Brewers as they look to turn their season around.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Jose Quintana has recorded 17 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 76th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Isaac Collins's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 84.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 34-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (55.2% vs. 49.1% last year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, hitters like Johan Rojas who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jose Quintana.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 17th-best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+6.64 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 away games (+8.00 Units / 160% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.98, Philadelphia Phillies 4.46

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Brewers
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

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