Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 5/31/2025

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 31, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup as both teams continue to battle for positioning within the National League. The Phillies, sporting a strong record of 36-21, currently sit atop the standings, making this a crucial game for maintaining momentum. Conversely, the Brewers are at 30-28, performing well but unable to make a significant leap in the standings.

The pitching matchup features rising star Jesus Luzardo for Philadelphia, who boasts an impressive 5-0 record and a stellar 2.15 ERA this season. Luzardo ranks as the 30th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, which positions him as a reliable option against Milwaukee’s struggling offense. However, it’s worth noting that his xFIP of 2.99 suggests he may experience some regression, particularly as he projects to allow an average of 5.0 hits and 1.8 walks today, both of which are concerning.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Chad Patrick, who has had a rough start to the season, holding a record of 2-4 and a respectable ERA of 2.97. Still, his xFIP of 4.32 indicates he has been fortunate thus far, making him a target for the potent Phillies offense. Philadelphia ranks 5th in overall offense and is particularly strong in batting average, while Milwaukee's offense has struggled, ranking 25th in the league.

Given the current odds, the projections favor the Phillies, who are expected to score over 4.5 runs today. With Luzardo on the mound and a dynamic lineup, Philadelphia looks primed to continue their winning ways against a Brewers team in need of a spark.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

With a 1.65 deviation between Chad Patrick's 2.97 ERA and his 4.62 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year and ought to see worse results in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Extreme flyball bats like Christian Yelich tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of all the teams playing today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Alec Bohm is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Philadelphia ranks as the #1 team in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle span that tends to result the most in base hits (46.2% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+7.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games (+9.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.05 Units / 14% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.46, Philadelphia Phillies 4.84

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies

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