Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 5/30/2025

The Philadelphia Phillies, sitting at 36-20, are in a strong position as they face the Milwaukee Brewers (29-28) in their first matchup of the series on May 30, 2025. The Phillies have been impressive this season, boasting the 5th best offense in MLB, while the Brewers are struggling with the 25th ranked offense.

On the mound, the Phillies will send Taijuan Walker to the hill. Despite being ranked as the 288th best starting pitcher in MLB, his ERA stands at an excellent 2.97. However, projections suggest that he has been somewhat lucky, as his xFIP of 4.40 indicates potential for regression. Walker has struggled with consistency, projecting to pitch just 4.9 innings today while allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and issuing 1.8 walks.

In contrast, the Brewers will start DL Hall. They will also be bringing former Phillies player Rhys Hoskins back to face his former team in this contest. It will be interesting to see if familiarity with Citizens Bank Park will help Hoskins in this contest.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -145, suggesting they could score around 4.82 runs. Given their offensive capabilities and the likelihood of Walker’s potential to outperform his projections, the Phillies look to capitalize on their strong season against a Brewers team that is finding it hard to generate consistent offense.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Isaac Collins's average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 84.8-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 34-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Taijuan Walker (33.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 4 GB hitters in Milwaukee's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball hitters like Johan Rojas generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Quinn Priester.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Philadelphia has performed as the #1 club in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (46.2% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 32 games (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+8.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 26% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.38, Philadelphia Phillies 5.05

• Date: May 30, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

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