Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers
  • JP Sears - Athletics

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Oakland Athletics on August 23, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Brewers, with a record of 73-54, are firmly in the playoff race, while the Athletics, at 55-73, are struggling this season and have been eliminated from winning their division.

In their last games, the Athletics got a win over the Tampa Bay Rays, while the Brewers fell against the St. Louis Cardinals. Oakland's projected starter, JP Sears, has had an up-and-down year, holding a Win/Loss record of 10-8 and an ERA of 4.15. Despite being ranked as the 161st best starting pitcher in MLB, Sears has shown flashes of potential. He projects to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, though he struggles with hits allowed, projected at 4.8 per game.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Aaron Civale, who has a record of 4-8 and an ERA of 4.78. Despite being considered below average, Civale's projections suggest he may perform better moving forward, with an xFIP of 4.28 indicating he has been somewhat unlucky. He is expected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and his ability to strike out 5.0 batters could be crucial against an Athletics offense that ranks 20th in MLB.

The Brewers' offense has been solid this season, ranking 10th overall and 5th in batting average, while the Athletics have a powerful lineup, ranking 4th in home runs but struggling in other areas. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on pitching, and the Brewers appear to have the edge.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Aaron Civale’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2560 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2619 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Sal Frelick may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Oakland Athletics has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

William Contreras has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

JP Sears projects for 1.8 walks in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Milwaukee's #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for J.J. Bleday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Oakland Athletics have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof, Max Schuemann, Seth Brown).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+12.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 126 games (+12.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Max Schuemann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.65 Units / 41% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.29 vs Oakland Athletics 4.08

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