Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Yankees Pick – 3/30/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on March 30, 2025, they come off a strong start to the season with a 2-0 record, showcasing their offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Brewers are struggling at 0-2, looking to turn their fortunes around in this interleague matchup at Yankee Stadium. This game marks the third in their series, and both teams will rely on their starting pitchers to set the tone.

The Yankees are projected to start Marcus Stroman, who, despite being ranked as the 297th best starting pitcher in MLB, has shown flashes of effectiveness. He projects to pitch 4.9 innings and allow an average of 2.0 earned runs, which is decent. However, he also has concerning projections with 4.3 hits and 2.0 walks allowed, which could play into the Brewers' hands if they can capitalize on those opportunities.

On the other side, Aaron Civale is also struggling, ranking among the worst pitchers in the league. His projections show he will pitch slightly fewer innings on average (4.8) while allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs. Both pitchers have their flaws, but the Yankees hold the advantage with a higher implied team total of 4.54 runs compared to the Brewers' 3.96.

With the Yankees favored at -140 on the moneyline, bettors might find value in their impressive start and the overall team performance, especially considering the projections favor them in this matchup. A strong showing from Stroman would certainly bolster their chances of maintaining their winning streak against a reeling Brewers squad.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Aaron Civale to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Typically, batters like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Marcus Stroman.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Rhys Hoskins, Oliver Dunn, Garrett Mitchell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Marcus Stroman must realize this, because he has used his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 61.7% of the time, checking in at the 85th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

New York Yankees batters as a group place in the majors for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 10.7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 79 of their last 141 games (+15.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 away games (+8.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.75 Units / 54% ROI)

• Date: March 30, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.