Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Prediction – 7/3/2025
We could be in for an NLCS preview on Thursday, as the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets do battle in Queens. Both of these teams are in second place in their respective divisions but both are looking to prove that they belong with the league’s elite. Here, I break down this contest in the betting markets and make my Brewers vs Mets prediction for Thursday night.
Our Brewers vs Mets Pick
- Pick: New York Mets Moneyline (-156)
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Bonus Bets For This Game: Use BetMGM promo code ATSBONUS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win!
Game Snapshot
| Matchup | Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets |
| Date & Time | July 3, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Starting Pitchers | José Quintana (MIL) vs. David Peterson (NYM) |
| Stadium | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Broadcast | SNY, FDSWI |
Key Storylines to Watch
Pitching Form: I’m sure the odds of this happening are astronomical, but both starting pitchers in this game have the same ERA. José Quintana (6-2, 3.30 ERA) has been solid for the Brewers, while David Peterson (5-4, 3.30 ERA) has provided consistency for the Mets. I am interested to see how both fare against above-average lineups tonight.
Team Momentum: Keep in mind that these teams have been moving in opposite directions lately. The Brewers have won 7 of their last 10 games, including the first game of this series with the Mets. The Mets have struggled recently, going 3-7 in their last 10 outings and falling behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East standings.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | Home Runs | +800 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | Total Bases | Over 1.5 (+125) |
| José Quintana (MIL) | Strikeouts | Over 3.5 (-150) |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
Last 5 games: Brewers are 3-2, Mets are 1-4.
Runline trends: Brewers are 45-41 on the runline this season, the Mets are 45-42.
Head-to-Head Results: These teams have split the first two games of their season series. They are slated to play four more games from now until the end of the regular season.
Brewers vs Mets Model Projection
Projected Score: Brewers 3 – Mets 4
Win Probability: Mets 58% | Brewers 42%
Final Thoughts
Given the Mets’ strong home record and the Brewers’ recent form, I wouldn’t expect anything other than a close game. The starting pitchers in this game are identical in terms of their ERA, but the Mets’ home-field advantage and superior power batting numbers make them the best value in my eyes. The value lies in the Mets’ moneyline and I am not opposed to betting the under here either, as both pitching staffs should have a solid night.
