Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Prediction – 7/1/2025

Here’s our detailed game preview for Tuesday, July 1, 2025, focusing on the National League showdown between the Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Mets. Continue reading to get my analysis packed with betting insights, stats, and my Brewers vs Mets prediction.

Our Brewers vs Mets Prediction

Pick: Milwaukee moneyline

Confidence: ★★★½

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers (47‑37) at New York Mets (48‑37)
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 1, 2025, at 7:10 PM (EDT)
• Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta (MIL, 8‑4, 2.90 ERA) vs Clay Holmes (NYM, 8‑4, 2.97 ERA)
• Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
• Broadcast: FDSNWI and SNY

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Freddy Peralta has been dominant in June with 5.5 IP per start and six quality starts. Last time out, he went 5 IP, with 3 ER and 8 K’s vs Pittsburgh.
• Clay Holmes, working off a 2.97 ERA in June with six quality starts. In his last outing he threw 5 IP with just 1 ER vs Atlanta.

Bullpen usage

• Mets bullpen showing signs of fatigue after rotation injuries raised ERA to 6.41 since mid‑June.
• Brewers starters posted a 3.22 ERA in June, fourth‑best in MLB. That has helped make life easier on the Brewers bullpen.

Recent team streaks

• Brewers have won four straight on the road, covering the runline in four of their last five.
• Mets are 3‑13 since June 13, swept by Pirates and Braves recently.
• Over is 4‑1 in Mets last five NL games.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Mets tend to win 65% of games as favorites, but their form has declined.
• Team totals under have been strong for both teams: Brewers are 48‑33‑3 and Mets are 46‑36‑3.

Brewers vs Mets Model Projection

• Score Projection: Brewers 5 – Mets 4
• Win Probability: Brewers 54%, Mets 46%

Final Thoughts

The Mets are the favorites at home here, but they enter this series in the midst of a slump and a pitching crisis. Meanwhile, the Brewers boast strong starting pitching, road form, and value on the moneyline at +104. Peralta’s strong June and a quality bullpen give Milwaukee a solid foundation. Our model also spots upside, projecting a tight game that the Brewers could very well take on the moneyline.