Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Prediction – 7/1/2025
Here’s our detailed game preview for Tuesday, July 1, 2025, focusing on the National League showdown between the Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Mets. Continue reading to get my analysis packed with betting insights, stats, and my Brewers vs Mets prediction.
Our Brewers vs Mets Prediction
Pick: Milwaukee moneyline
Confidence: ★★★½
Game Snapshot
Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers (47‑37) at New York Mets (48‑37)
Date & Time: Tuesday, July 1, 2025, at 7:10 PM (EDT)
Freddy Peralta has been dominant in June with 5.5 IP per start and six quality starts. Last time out, he went 5 IP, with 3 ER and 8 K’s vs Pittsburgh.
Clay Holmes, working off a 2.97 ERA in June with six quality starts. In his last outing he threw 5 IP with just 1 ER vs Atlanta.
Bullpen usage
Mets bullpen showing signs of fatigue after rotation injuries raised ERA to 6.41 since mid‑June.
Brewers starters posted a 3.22 ERA in June, fourth‑best in MLB. That has helped make life easier on the Brewers bullpen.
Recent team streaks
Brewers have won four straight on the road, covering the runline in four of their last five.
Mets are 3‑13 since June 13, swept by Pirates and Braves recently.
Over is 4‑1 in Mets last five NL games.
Best Player Props
Player
Stat
Line
Freddy Peralta
Over 5.5 strikeouts
−105
Juan Soto
Over 1.5 total bases
+110
Pete Alonso
Home run anytime
+220
Betting Trends & H2H
Mets tend to win 65% of games as favorites, but their form has declined.
Team totals under have been strong for both teams: Brewers are 48‑33‑3 and Mets are 46‑36‑3.
Brewers vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Brewers 5 – Mets 4
Win Probability: Brewers 54%, Mets 46%
Final Thoughts
The Mets are the favorites at home here, but they enter this series in the midst of a slump and a pitching crisis. Meanwhile, the Brewers boast strong starting pitching, road form, and value on the moneyline at +104. Peralta’s strong June and a quality bullpen give Milwaukee a solid foundation. Our model also spots upside, projecting a tight game that the Brewers could very well take on the moneyline.
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Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.
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