Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Game 1 Prediction – 7/2/2025

Game 1 of today’s doubleheader between the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets promises a compelling pitching duel at Citi Field. The Brewers arrive having won 8 of their last 10. The Mets, meanwhile, are sputtering offensively with 13 losses in their past 16 games. With the rain–postponed series opener making for a 1:10 p.m. ET start, this game will set the tone for the double dip. Here, you can keep reading to get my Brewers vs Mets Game 1 prediction.

Our Brewers vs Mets Game 1 Pick

• Pick: Brewers moneyline (+112)
• Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 2, 2025, 1:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta (8–4, 2.90 ERA) vs Clay Holmes (8–4, 2.97 ERA)
• Stadium: Citi Field, Flushing, Queens, NY
• Broadcast: SNY | FDSWI

Key Storylines

Pitching form

Freddy Peralta (8–4, 2.90 ERA) takes the mound for the Brewers, while the Mets counter with Clay Holmes (8–4, 2.97 ERA). Both starting pitchers are among the league leaders in wins and their teams will be counting on them to eat up innings during the first game of today’s doubleheader.

Bullpen usage

• Milwaukee’s bullpen has contributed to a team ERA of 3.77 and WHIP of 1.29. They’re converting saves at a 66.7% clip and rank fifth in holds.
• The Mets pen has struggled to hold leads late. With two games on the schedule for these teams today, that could become an issue, but Holmes going deep into this game would alleviate those concerns a bit.

Recent team streaks

• Brewers have won 8 of 10 and 4 straight on the road.
• Mets have lost 13 of 16, including a sweep in Pittsburgh, as their offense has cooled drastically.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Brewers are 44–40 on the runline this year.
• Mets are 44-41 in the runline market in 2025.
• The Mets are 29-12 at home this year, the Brewers are 20-20 on the road.

Brewers vs Mets Game 1 Model Projection

Score Projection: Brewers 3 – Mets 2

Win Probability: Brewers 53%, Mets 47%

Final Thoughts

My advanced model tilts slightly toward the Brewers in Game 1, and the current form of both teams backs that up. Peralta is entering off strong outings, supported by a reliable bullpen. The Mets’ offense has collapsed, and even with Holmes pitching well, control issues and a shaky pen make them vulnerable. Betting on Milwaukee’s moneyline at around +112 offers value when factoring in their recent form, bullpen strength, and Peralta’s recent level of performance. To me, the under also looks appealing given the pitchers and Citi Field’s typically pitcher-friendly dimensions.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.