Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 6/22/2025

As the Minnesota Twins host the Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field on June 22, 2025, both teams find themselves in different spots in the standings. The Twins, with a record of 37-39, are having an average season, while the Brewers sit at 42-35, enjoying an above-average campaign. Both teams are looking to gain momentum in this important interleague matchup, especially after the Brewers won the previous game in the series.

Starting for the Twins is David Festa, who has struggled this season with a 1-1 record and a below-average ERA of 4.78. However, his advanced statistics suggest he might have been unlucky, evidenced by a more favorable 4.04 SIERA. Festa projects to pitch an average of 4.4 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs with a concerning rate of 4.7 hits and 1.4 walks.

On the other hand, the Brewers will counter with Quinn Priester, who has been more effective with a 5-2 record and a strong ERA of 3.46. However, the projections indicate he might also face challenges, as he is expected to allow 3.0 earned runs while pitching an average of 5.2 innings. Both pitchers struggle with walks and hits, which could lead to a high-scoring affair.

Offensively, the Twins rank 16th in MLB, while the Brewers are 21st. With a game total set at 9.5 runs and the Twins favored with an implied team total of 5.07 runs, this matchup could be a pivotal moment for both teams. The Twins will look to capitalize on their home field advantage, while the Brewers aim to build on last night's win.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Quinn Priester (52.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Minnesota's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Sal Frelick has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.3-mph dropping to 77.8-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers hitters as a unit rank 30th- in MLB for power this year when using their 6.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

With a 0.82 deviation between David Festa's 4.87 ERA and his 4.05 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season and figures to see positive regression the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Milwaukee's #2-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Matt Wallner, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In today's matchup, Harrison Bader is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (85th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 68 games (+7.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+11.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.19, Minnesota Twins 5.05

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers
  • David Festa - Twins

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