Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 6/21/2025

The Minnesota Twins will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field on June 21, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Twins currently sit with a record of 37-38, showcasing an average season. In contrast, the Brewers are performing better at 41-35, placing them in a more favorable position. In their last encounter, the Twins fell to the Brewers, marking the first game of the series.

Projected starters for this game are Simeon Woods Richardson for the Twins and Jose Quintana for the Brewers. Woods Richardson has struggled this season, ranking as the 170th best starting pitcher in MLB, with a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 5.13. The projections suggest he could pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs while striking out 3.7 batters, which does not bode well for the Twins.

On the other hand, Jose Quintana, though considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB by the Power Rankings, boasts an impressive ERA of 3.35 and a Win/Loss record of 4-2. He is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 3.4 earned runs, while striking out 3.9 batters. Despite his strong numbers, projections indicate he may be due for regression.

The Twins' offense ranks 16th overall, which is average, but they are particularly weak in stolen bases, ranking 27th. The Brewers, despite their better record, have the 23rd best offense and are also struggling with power, ranking 25th in home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd in MLB, which could be a crucial factor.

With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, betting markets suggest this will be a close contest, with the Twins holding a moneyline of -130 and the Brewers at +110. The Twins have a high implied team total of 4.97 runs, which may reflect confidence in their ability to capitalize on the Brewers' pitching struggles.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Jose Quintana has utilized his sinker 17.1% more often this season (47.5%) than he did last year (30.4%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Bats such as Christian Yelich with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson was rolling in his previous start and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Byron Buxton has big-time power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Quintana doesn't generate many whiffs (21st percentile K%) — great news for Buxton.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Ranking 7th-highest in MLB this year, Minnesota Twins batters collectively have put up a 15.5° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable metric to assess power ability).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 55 games (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.90 Units / 28% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.47, Minnesota Twins 5.41

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Brewers
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins

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