Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 6/20/2025

The Minnesota Twins will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field on June 20, 2025, in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Currently, the Twins are sitting at a .500 record of 37-37, while the Brewers are slightly better at 40-35, indicating an above-average season for Milwaukee. The Twins, however, have the advantage of playing at home.

On the mound, Minnesota will send out Joe Ryan, who has been exceptional this season with a 7-2 record and a stellar ERA of 2.93, ranking him as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Ryan projects to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing around 2.4 earned runs, and he’s likely to strike out about 5.8 batters. His high flyball rate (45% FB) could work in his favor against a Brewers lineup that has struggled to generate power, hitting only 69 home runs this season—ranking them 6th least in MLB.

In contrast, Milwaukee will counter with Jacob Misiorowski, who has only started once this year and boasts a perfect 0.00 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.92 suggests he’s been fortunate thus far, and he’s projected to pitch just 4.3 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs. His below-average strikeout rate of 4.6 further complicates his matchup against a Twins offense that, despite being ranked 17th overall, has shown signs of life with their best hitter recently recording four home runs over the past week.

The Twins enter this game as betting favorites with a moneyline of -165, projecting a team total of 4.44 runs, while the Brewers are underdogs at +140 with a lower implied total of 3.56 runs. With Ryan on the mound and the Brewers lacking power, the Twins have a favorable edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among every team playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Sal Frelick has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph dropping to 77.1-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 10th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #21 HR venue in the league today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Matt Wallner is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Minnesota Twins have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 15.5° figure is among the highest in MLB this year (#7 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 69 games (+8.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+11.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Brice Turang has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.30 Units / 67% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.28, Minnesota Twins 4.65

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jacob Misiorowski - Brewers
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

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