Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/22/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Jesus Luzardo - Marlins

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In a National League matchup on May 22, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the Milwaukee Brewers at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, with a record of 16-34, are having a tough season, while the Brewers, with a record of 28-20, are enjoying a successful campaign.

The Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jesus Luzardo, who has a 1-3 win/loss record this year and an ERA of 5.02. However, his 3.56 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta, who has a 3-2 win/loss record and an ERA of 4.17. Like Luzardo, Peralta has also been unlucky according to his 3.28 xFIP.

Luzardo is expected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters. However, he is also projected to give up 4.8 hits and 1.9 walks on average, which are not favorable numbers. Peralta, on the other hand, is expected to pitch an average of 5.8 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs and striking out 6.7 batters. However, he is projected to give up 4.8 hits and 1.7 walks on average.

The Marlins offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 29th best in MLB. However, they do have the 3rd best team batting average. The Brewers offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 3rd best in MLB, but their team batting average is only 27th best.

Based on the current odds, the Marlins have a low implied team total of 3.53 runs, while the Brewers have an average implied team total of 3.97 runs. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

Considering the projections and rankings, the Brewers are favored to win this game with an implied win probability of 55%. However, betting markets expect a close game, as the Marlins have a 45% implied win probability.

It will be interesting to see how the Marlins' struggling offense matches up against Peralta, a high-flyball pitcher. With their low home run count this season, the Marlins may struggle to capitalize on his flyballs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Joey Ortiz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Milwaukee Brewers have 8 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This year, there has been a decline in Josh Bell's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 24.79 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Miami Marlins have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 46 games (+5.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+9.30 Units / 77% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.37 vs Miami Marlins 3.8

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