Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Picks 6/18/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Angel Stadium on June 18, 2024, in the second game of their series. This interleague matchup features two teams with starkly contrasting seasons. The Angels, struggling at 28-43, will look to turn their fortunes around against the Brewers, who boast a strong 42-29 record.

Griffin Canning takes the mound for the Angels, carrying a 2-7 record with a 4.76 ERA over 14 starts. Advanced metrics suggest that Canning has been somewhat fortunate this season, as his 5.33 FIP indicates a potential for regression. Canning's projections for today aren't encouraging: he’s expected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and striking out 4.5 batters.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Tobias Myers. Myers, holding a 3-2 record and a 3.76 ERA through eight starts, has been similarly lucky according to his 5.04 FIP. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Myers to struggle today, forecasting only 4.8 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Brewers have a clear edge. Milwaukee's lineup is ranked 4th in both overall offense and team batting average, with a strong 2nd-place ranking in stolen bases. Christian Yelich has been a standout performer recently, hitting .474 over his last five games with a 1.072 OPS. Meanwhile, the Angels' offense ranks 16th overall and 8th in both home runs and stolen bases. Mickey Moniak has been their best hitter over the past week, posting a .389 average and a 1.278 OPS.

Betting markets are predicting a close game, with the Brewers favored at -135 and the Angels at +115. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an expected average-scoring affair. Considering the Brewers' superior season and overall team metrics, Milwaukee seems poised to capitalize on their strong form and bolster their playoff hopes.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Tobias Myers has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 15.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has used his slider 5% less often this season (24.7%) than he did last year (29.7%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Brandon Drury has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen grades out as the worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 71 games (+7.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 68 games (+6.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.95 Units / 40% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.2 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.8

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