Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks 5/19/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated matchup, the Houston Astros are set to take on the Milwaukee Brewers on May 19, 2024, at Minute Maid Park. As the home team, the Astros will have the advantage of their home stadium. This game marks an interleague matchup, adding an extra layer of excitement for fans.

The Astros have had a challenging season so far, with a record of 20-26. Their struggles have been evident, as they currently rank as the #5 best offense in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks at #14, showing room for improvement. Despite their offensive prowess, their pitching has been a weak point. Spencer Arrighetti, projected to start for the Astros, has had a tough season with a 1-4 record and an ERA of 7.52. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Arrighetti is one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Brewers have been having a stellar season with a record of 27-18. They boast the #2 best offense in MLB, despite ranking low in team batting average. Colin Rea is projected to start for the Brewers, with a solid record of 3-1 and an ERA of 3.45. However, his xFIP indicates that he may not perform as well in the future.

Considering the projected performance of the pitchers, the Brewers' patient offense, which ranks #3 in walks drawn, may have an advantage against Arrighetti, who struggles with control. Additionally, the Astros' low strikeout rate, ranking #5 in strikeouts least in MLB, may pose a challenge for Rea, who relies on strikeouts.

The betting markets anticipate a close game, with the Astros favored at -135 and the Brewers at +115. The implied win probability suggests a 55% chance of victory for the Astros and a 45% chance for the Brewers. The Astros have a high implied team total of 4.76 runs, while the Brewers have an average implied team total of 4.24 runs.

With both teams aiming for a crucial win, this game promises to be an exciting clash of offenses. Will the Astros overcome their pitching struggles and capitalize on their offensive firepower? Or will the Brewers continue their dominant season and exploit the Astros' weaknesses? Baseball fans and bettors alike will be eagerly awaiting the outcome of this highly-anticipated matchup.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Colin Rea has used his slider 5.6% more often this year (16.3%) than he did last season (10.7%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Despite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Joey Ortiz has experienced some positive variance given the .094 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .305.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Christian Yelich has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Spencer Arrighetti was in good form in his previous game started and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Joey Loperfido has big-time HR ability (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (31.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea struggles to strike batters out (7th percentile K%) — great news for Loperfido.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.6 vs Houston Astros 5.07

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