Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 5/14/2025

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 14, 2025, both teams will be eager to make their mark in this interleague matchup. The Guardians are in the midst of a strong season with a record of 25-17, while the Brewers are grappling with a below-average season at 20-23. In their previous game, the Guardians took the series lead, showcasing their ability to perform well at Progressive Field.

Projected starters Gavin Williams and Logan Henderson will headline the pitching duel. Gavin Williams, with a Power Rankings spot as the 73rd best starting pitcher, has shown flashes of talent despite an average ERA of 4.38 and a solid xFIP of 3.85. His recent performances suggest potential improvement, backed by projections that indicate he may yield 2.5 earned runs over 5.3 innings. On the other hand, Logan Henderson has had a stellar start to his season with a 1.50 ERA over one game, but his 2.27 xFIP suggests he may not maintain that level moving forward.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 19th in MLB, boasting an average lineup that's capable of generating runs despite ranking 22nd in team batting average. Conversely, the Brewers' offense ranks 24th and has struggled consistently, making this a crucial matchup for both sides.

Cleveland enters today as a betting favorite with a moneyline of -145, reflecting their higher implied team total of 4.31 runs compared to the Brewers' 3.69 runs. With their bullpen ranked 9th in MLB, the Guardians seem well-positioned to capitalize on the Brewers' struggles and secure another victory.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Cleveland Guardians have 8 bats in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Henderson in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brice Turang has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 6.1% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #30 team in the majors this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all starters, Gavin Williams's fastball velocity of 96.4 mph is in the 96th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Daniel Schneemann has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.4-mph average to last year's 90.5-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 36 games (+10.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+8.05 Units / 23% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.42, Cleveland Guardians 4.41

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Henderson - Brewers
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

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