Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 5/13/2025

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Milwaukee Brewers on May 13, 2025, at Progressive Field, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the tight race for postseason positioning. The Guardians sit at 24-17, enjoying a solid season, while the Brewers are struggling with a record of 20-22. In their previous meeting yesterday, the Guardians secured a narrow victory, further solidifying their edge in this interleague series.

Cleveland is projected to send Logan Allen to the mound, a left-handed pitcher with a 1-2 record and an average ERA of 4.33 this season. However, his 5.36 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, indicating potential struggles ahead. Allen's average outing is expected to last 5.2 innings, during which he projects to allow 2.9 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and 1.9 walks. This could spell trouble against a Brewers lineup that, despite their overall struggles, ranks 1st in stolen bases, showcasing their speed on the basepaths.

On the other side, Quinn Priester will take the ball for Milwaukee. With a 1-1 record and a less-than-stellar ERA of 5.08, Priester's projections indicate he could pitch 5.1 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs and 5.5 hits. His performance is critical as the Brewers look to capitalize on any weaknesses in the Guardians' lineup, which ranks 19th in MLB this season.

Cleveland's offense, while average in terms of runs and home runs, is bolstered by their strong bullpen, ranked 8th in MLB. This depth could prove pivotal in a game projected to have a high total of 9.0 runs. The Guardians' current moneyline sits at -125, suggesting they are viewed as favorites in this matchup, while Milwaukee's +105 reflects a competitive outlook. Given these dynamics, the Guardians are positioned to continue their upward trajectory in this series.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Quinn Priester was rolling in his previous GS and conceded 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Cleveland's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Sal Frelick, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers hitters as a group rank 30th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 6% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Logan Allen is an extreme flyball pitcher (36% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Nolan Jones is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 31 games (+7.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 21% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.87, Cleveland Guardians 4.74

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers
  • Logan Allen - Guardians

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