Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 5/12/2025

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 12, 2025, in the first game of an interleague series at Progressive Field. The Guardians currently hold a solid 23-17 record, showcasing a strong season, while the Brewers sit at 20-21, indicating an average performance thus far. This matchup presents an intriguing narrative, especially with the Brewers' Freddy Peralta projected to take the mound against the Guardians' Ben Lively.

The Guardians' offense ranks 15th in MLB, which is average, but they excel in home runs, ranking 11th. On the other hand, the Brewers' offense ranks 24th overall, illustrating their challenges at the plate.

Ben Lively, although ranked 274th among starting pitchers, has managed to maintain a respectable 3.46 ERA this season. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been fortunate and could struggle going forward, projecting an average of 2.9 earned runs over 5.3 innings. His strikeout rate is concerning, averaging just 3.6 strikeouts per game. In contrast, Freddy Peralta, ranked 33rd in MLB, boasts an impressive 2.18 ERA and is projected to allow only 2.4 earned runs across 5.5 innings, while striking out an average of 5.7 batters.

With the Guardians' bullpen ranked 7th in MLB and the Brewers' at 13th, Cleveland may have the edge in relief pitching. The betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Guardians' moneyline at +115 and the Brewers at -135, reflecting the tight competition expected in this match. As the Guardians look to capitalize on their home-field advantage, they will aim to exploit the Brewers' offensive weaknesses and leverage their pitching depth to secure a crucial win.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue in the majors in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Joey Ortiz's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.8-mph mark last year has lowered to 83.5-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 6.1% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers makes them the #30 squad in the majors this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

This year, Ben Lively has introduced a new pitch to his pitch mix (a cutter), using it on 8.9% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Typically, bats like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Freddy Peralta.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.93, Cleveland Guardians 4.16

• Date: May 12, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.