Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
  • Jakob Junis - Reds

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers clash at Great American Ball Park on September 1, 2024, fans can expect an intriguing matchup between teams heading in different directions. The Reds currently sit at 64-73, having experienced a below-average season, while the Brewers boast a strong record of 80-56 and are enjoying a solid campaign. In their most recent contest on August 31, the Reds fell to the Brewers 5-4, marking a tough loss in a tightly contested game.

The projected starters add another layer of complexity to this game. For the Reds, Jakob Junis takes the mound. Despite his 4-0 record and a commendable ERA of 3.19, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky this season, as his xFIP stands at 3.87. He projects to pitch an average of 4.0 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 4.0 batters. On the other hand, Tobias Myers, who has a solid 6-5 record and an impressive ERA of 2.99, may also be due for some regression, given his xFIP of 4.14.

Offensively, the Reds rank 15th in the league, showing average talent, but they shine in stolen bases, leading MLB in that category. Conversely, the Brewers rank 9th offensively, bolstered by a potent batting average that stands at 5th in the league.

Interestingly, projections for this game indicate that the Reds may have more scoring potential than expected, with an implied team total of 4.29 runs and a projection of 5.12 runs. This could suggest value in backing the Reds against the Brewers, whose implied total is slightly higher at 4.71 runs. As both teams go head-to-head in this pivotal matchup, the stage is set for an exciting battle.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the best among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jake Bauers is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Cincinnati (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers bats collectively place 26th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 7.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jakob Junis is projected to throw 64 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Ty France has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 7.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games at home (+14.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 125 games (+11.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 36 games (+15.60 Units / 43% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.23 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.12

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