Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 6/4/2025

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 4, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of intense competition in the National League Central. Currently, the Reds are looking to improve their record of 30-32, which reflects a below-average season, while the Brewers stand at a respectable 33-29, enjoying an above-average campaign. This matchup also marks the third game in their series.

In their previous contest, the Reds needed a strong performance to bounce back after their most recent loss, and they got just that in a 4-2 win over Milwaukee. Cincinnati will look to their starting pitcher Andrew Abbott, who boasts an impressive 5-0 record this year alongside an excellent ERA of 1.51. While Abbott's advanced metrics suggest he might be due for some regression, his ability to limit earned runs makes him a challenging opponent for any lineup.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Quinn Priester, who has struggled to find consistency this season, holding a 4.09 ERA with a below-average projection according to various metrics. His matchup against a high-strikeout Reds offense, ranked 5th in MLB, could prove to be a daunting task.

Offensively, the Reds rank 14th overall and are performing decently with the bat, while the Brewers rank a disappointing 23rd. However, Milwaukee excels in their speed on the base paths, ranking 2nd in stolen bases.

With odds favoring the Reds at -120, suggesting a close contest, bettors should watch the starting pitching closely. Abbott's potential to stifle the Brewers' lineup may ultimately tip the scales in Cincinnati's favor as they aim to regain momentum in front of their home crowd at Great American Ball Park.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

In the past week's worth of games, Rhys Hoskins's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.9% up to 27.3%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott's 91.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.5-mph fall off from last season's 92.8-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Will Benson has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last year's 89.4-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+10.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.23, Cincinnati Reds 4.71

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.