Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 6/3/2025

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 3, 2025, this matchup carries significant weight for both teams. While the Reds are sitting in the middle of the standings with a 29-32 record, the Brewers are positioned better at 33-28. The Brewers come into this game on an eight-game winning streak and they will look to deliver here as well.

On the mound, Hunter Greene takes the hill for Cincinnati. Greene is having a solid season, boasting a 4-3 record and an excellent ERA of 2.63, making him the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs while striking out about 6.7 batters. However, he might face challenges with his projected 4.7 hits and 1.8 walks allowed, indicating some potential vulnerabilities.

Freddy Peralta counters for Milwaukee. With a 5-3 record and a 2.77 ERA, he ranks 38th among starting pitchers. Although his projections are similar to Greene’s in terms of innings and earned runs, Peralta has shown signs of being less consistent, as suggested by his xFIP of 4.13, which is significantly higher than his ERA.

The Reds' lineup is generating average offensive numbers, ranking 12th overall in MLB, while their 7th ranking in stolen bases provides them with an added edge on the basepaths. In contrast, the Brewers’ offensive struggles are evident, ranking 21st in overall offense and home runs, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on any pitching mistakes.

Given these factors, while betting markets have both teams at a -110 moneyline, Cincinnati may have the slight advantage at home with a projected edge from Greene's strong performance metrics. The Game Total is set at an average 8.0 runs, indicating a close contest ahead.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta's 2441-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 86th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Hitters such as Christian Yelich with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Greene who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 6.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #30 group of hitters in MLB this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (42% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.30 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games (+10.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.65 Units / 95% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.02, Cincinnati Reds 4.81

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

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