Milwaukee Brewers VS Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ross - Brewers
  • Frankie Montas - Reds
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Brewers 1.5 -155, Reds -1.5 135
• Money Line: Brewers 125, Reds -145
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -105

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 43%
• Cincinnati Reds - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 44.81%
• Cincinnati Reds - 55.19%

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

The Cincinnati Reds are set to host the Milwaukee Brewers on April 9, 2024, in an exciting National League Central matchup at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, with a season record of 6-4, are having a great season so far, while the Brewers are also performing well with a record of 6-3.

On the mound for the Reds, Frankie Montas, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start. Montas has started two games this year, boasting an impressive 2-0 record and a stellar ERA of 0.77. However, his 4.09 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Montas is ranked as the #77 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is above average.

Opposing Montas, the Brewers will start Joe Ross, also a right-handed pitcher. Ross has started one game this season, maintaining a 0.00 ERA. However, his 7.69 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could experience a decline in performance going forward. Our Power Rankings consider Ross one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

Looking at the offensive side, the Reds rank as the #8 best offense in MLB this season, showcasing their talent and potential. They excel in stolen bases, leading the league in this category. On the other hand, the Brewers possess the #9 best offense, with a strong hitting lineup but struggling in team batting average and home runs.

In terms of the bullpens, the Reds' bullpen is ranked #23, while the Brewers' bullpen is ranked #17 in MLB according to our Power Rankings. This suggests that the Brewers have a slight advantage in the relief pitching department.

Considering the betting odds, the Reds are the favorites with a current moneyline of -150, implying a win probability of 57%. The Brewers, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +125, with a win probability of 43%. The Game Total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game.

Ultimately, this game promises an intriguing matchup between two teams having solid seasons. The Reds' strong offense and Montas' impressive pitching performances may give them an edge in this contest. However, the Brewers' offense, led by their best hitter William Contreras, could pose a challenge to the Reds' pitching staff. With the Reds' bullpen ranked lower than the Brewers', the outcome of this game may come down to late-inning performances.

Disclaimer: The projected statistics and rankings mentioned are based on historical data and advanced analytics. Results may vary based on individual player performances and other unforeseen factors.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Joe Ross is expected to ring up an average of 15.1 outs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Bashing 3 long-balls in the last two weeks, Christian Yelich has been on fire lately.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Will Benson's batting average ability is projected to be in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 11th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 70 of their last 114 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 92 games (+9.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.95 Units / 59% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 4.61 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.88

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