Milwaukee Brewers VS Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Preview – 4/8/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 8, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Ashby - Brewers
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds
• Run Line: Brewers -1.5 150, Reds 1.5 -170
• Money Line: Brewers -110, Reds -110
• Total (Over/Under):9 -120

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 50%
• Cincinnati Reds - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 51.87%
• Cincinnati Reds - 48.13%

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League Central matchup scheduled for April 8, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will play host to the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park. Both teams have had impressive starts to the season, with the Reds holding a 5-4 record and the Brewers boasting a 6-2 record. This game marks the first in a series between these two teams.

On the mound for the Reds will be right-handed pitcher Graham Ashcraft. While Ashcraft is considered below average based on our advanced-stat Power Rankings, his performance this season has been solid with an ERA of 3.00. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been fortunate and may regress going forward. Ashcraft is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs on average.

For the Brewers, left-handed pitcher Aaron Ashby will take the mound. Ashby has been performing above average according to our Power Rankings, ranking as the #66 best starting pitcher in the league. He is projected to pitch around 4.5 innings and allow 2.0 earned runs on average.

The Reds' offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the 8th best in MLB. They have showcased their power with a strong showing in home runs and stolen bases. On the other hand, the Brewers' offense has struggled in terms of batting average and home runs, sitting at #27 and #22 in the league, respectively.

In terms of the betting odds, both teams are evenly matched with a moneyline set at -110 for each. THE BAT X projects a close game, giving the Brewers a slightly higher win probability of 52%, while the Reds have a 48% chance of winning according to the projections.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Cincinnati Reds have 9 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Aaron Ashby in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball bats like Christian Yelich tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Graham Ashcraft.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Christian Yelich has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Santiago Espinal has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Stuart Fairchild, Bubba Thompson, Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 70 of their last 115 games (+16.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 42 away games (+8.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.40 Units / 48% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 4.59 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.16

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