Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks 7/23/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field on July 23, 2024, for the second game of their series. Both teams find themselves in different places this season; the Cubs, with a 49-53 record, are having a below-average year while the Brewers are enjoying a solid season at 57-43. This National League Central matchup holds significance as the Cubs aim to build on their 3-1 victory over the Brewers on July 22.

Jameson Taillon will take the mound for the Cubs, bringing a 7-4 record and an impressive 3.10 ERA into the game. However, his 4.18 xFIP suggests he might have been fortunate so far this season. Taillon is ranked as the 123rd best starting pitcher in MLB, which places him below average, but he has demonstrated respectable control, walking only 4.7% of batters faced. This could neutralize one of the Brewers' offensive strengths, as Milwaukee ranks 3rd in drawing walks.

Colin Rea will start for the Brewers. Despite a commendable 9-3 record and a 3.77 ERA, his 4.48 xFIP indicates he might also be due for regression. Rea’s projections are less favorable, as he is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings. He is forecasted to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.1 innings, with 4.3 strikeouts, 5.5 hits, and 1.4 walks expected – none of which bode well against even an average offense.

On the offensive side, the Cubs rank 19th overall but struggle significantly with their batting average (25th) and home runs (23rd). They do, however, excel in stolen bases, ranking 9th. Ian Happ has been a consistent performer, leading the team with 59 RBIs and 16 home runs. Meanwhile, the Brewers boast the 7th best offense, highlighted by their 5th best team batting average and 2nd best ranking in stolen bases. Willy Adames spearheads their attack with 68 RBIs and 16 home runs.

Despite the mismatch in season performance and offensive rankings, the Cubs enter the game as -120 favorites with an implied win probability of 52%. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs are slightly favored with a 53% win probability, suggesting a tightly contested game at the Friendly Confines. Both teams have high projected run totals, with the Cubs at 4.71 and the Brewers at 4.63, promising an exciting and dynamic matchup.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Colin Rea's slider rate has risen by 6% from last year to this one (10.7% to 16.7%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Christian Yelich may have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon's fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this season (91.9 mph) below where it was last season (93 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .239 rate is deflated compared to his .291 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+10.95 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 94 games (+9.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.81 vs Chicago Cubs 4.92

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