Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 6/18/2025

The Chicago Cubs will host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 18, 2025, for the second game of their series. The Cubs currently boast a solid 45-28 record, positioning themselves well in the National League Central, while the Brewers sit at 39-35, having displayed an above-average performance this season.

In their previous matchup, the Cubs showcased their offensive firepower, securing a convincing win. On the mound today, the Cubs are projected to start Jameson Taillon, who has a 7-3 record this season and an impressive 3.48 ERA. However, advanced metrics indicate that he might have been a bit fortunate thus far. Taillon’s ability to generate fly balls (40% FB rate) could work in his favor against a Brewers lineup that has hit just 66 home runs this year, the 6th fewest in MLB.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Jacob Misiorowski, who has only started one game this season but has a flawless 0.00 ERA. However, his projected metrics suggest he might be due for a regression, given his high xFIP of 4.92. With the Cubs offense currently ranked 4th in MLB and excelling in power, Misiorowski may be in for a challenging outing.

As the Cubs aim to leverage their home-field advantage and potent lineup, they enter as betting favorites, with a high implied team total of 4.33 runs, while the Brewers face an uphill battle with a lower projected total of 3.67 runs. The Game Total is set at an average 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Jacob Misiorowski is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #23 HR venue among all parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon has relied on his cutter 12.6% less often this season (12.4%) than he did last season (25%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Carson Kelly has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95-mph average to last year's 91.4-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Chicago Cubs.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 64 games (+10.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games (+13.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 30% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.22, Chicago Cubs 4.55

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jacob Misiorowski - Brewers
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

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