Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 6/17/2025

On June 17, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League Central matchup. The Cubs are having a strong season, currently sitting at 44-28, while the Brewers, with a record of 39-34, are performing above average. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, especially after the Cubs’ recent success, setting up this clash between the top-two teams in the NL Central.

Ben Brown, projected to start for the Cubs, has had a mixed year. Despite being ranked as the 46th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his 3-5 record and a troubling 5.71 ERA raise concerns. However, his 3.39 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky and could improve. Brown projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 2.2 earned runs, which could bode well against a Brewers offense ranked 24th in the league.

Chad Patrick, the Brewers' starter, has had a solid season with a 3.25 ERA, but his 4.16 xFIP indicates that he may have benefited from some good fortune. Patrick’s projections show he might struggle, as he averages only 5.0 innings pitched and is expected to allow around 2.8 earned runs.

The Cubs' offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 4th in MLB and boasting the 5th best team batting average and home run total. This power could be particularly advantageous against Patrick, who is a high-flyball pitcher. With a game total set at 9.0 runs and the Cubs favored at -150, they have an implied team total of 4.87 runs, suggesting they could capitalize on their offensive strengths today.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Chad Patrick has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 8.56 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.04 — a 0.52 K/9 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Christian Yelich has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 91.2-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Ben Brown's 95-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.5-mph decrease from last season's 96.5-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Milwaukee's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.75 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+5.80 Units / 20% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.27, Chicago Cubs 4.82

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers
  • Ben Brown - Cubs

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