Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/13/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles Overview

• Date: April 13, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • D.L. Hall - Brewers
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
• Run Line: Brewers 1.5 -165, Orioles -1.5 145
• Money Line: Brewers 120, Orioles -145
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 43%
• Baltimore Orioles - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 42.16%
• Baltimore Orioles - 57.84%

Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

The Baltimore Orioles (8-5) will host the Milwaukee Brewers (9-3) in an Interleague matchup on April 13, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles have been having a great season so far, while the Brewers have also been performing well.

The Orioles are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dean Kremer, who has been impressive this season with an ERA of 2.19. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may experience some regression going forward. On the other hand, D.L. Hall, a left-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Brewers. Hall has struggled this season with an ERA of 4.82, and his xFIP indicates that he is likely to perform worse in future games.

In terms of offense, the Brewers have been one of the best teams in MLB this season, ranking third overall. However, their batting average and home run rankings are relatively low. The Orioles, on the other hand, have an average offense, ranking 18th overall in MLB. Their batting average and home run rankings are also average.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Brewers have the sixth-best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Orioles rank 15th. This suggests that the Brewers may have a slight advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%. The Brewers are the underdogs with a moneyline of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%.

Considering the projection that Dean Kremer will pitch an average of 5.5 innings, allow 2.3 earned runs, strike out 5.0 batters, and allow 5.2 hits, it seems that he has a decent chance of keeping the Brewers' offense in check. Meanwhile, D.L. Hall's projection suggests that he may struggle, with an average of 4.1 innings pitched, 2.1 earned runs allowed, 3.9 strikeouts, and 4.1 hits allowed.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the Orioles' solid pitching and the Brewers' potent offense. While the Orioles have the advantage in starting pitching, the Brewers have the edge in offensive production. With the Orioles being the home team and having a higher projected win probability, they are favored to come out on top in this game.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to league average, DL Hall has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -20.7 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jackson Chourio has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Due to his reverse platoon split, Dean Kremer encounters a tough challenge facing 7 hitters in the projected batting order who share the same handedness in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Cracking 2 home runs over the past 7 days, Gunnar Henderson has been on fire of late.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Projected catcher Adley Rutschman projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Brewers vs Orioles Prediction: Brewers 3.73 - Orioles 4.17

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