Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction & Picks 8/8/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: August 8, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Brewers
  • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers on August 8, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Truist Park. The Braves, currently 60-53, are aiming to solidify their standing in a competitive National League, while the Brewers, holding a 64-49 record, are looking to maintain their momentum. Both teams are coming off a series where the Brewers took the first two games, putting the Braves in a must-win situation to avoid a sweep.

Charlie Morton, who has had a mixed season with a 6-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.94, will take the mound for Atlanta. While Morton's advanced-stat Power Rankings place him at #128 among starting pitchers, the projections indicate he may struggle today, averaging 5.4 innings pitched but allowing 3.0 earned runs and 5.5 hits. The Braves' offense ranks 15th overall but excels in home runs, sitting at 10th in the league, which could play a crucial role against Morton's counterpart.

Frankie Montas, projected to start for Milwaukee, has a less favorable outlook with a 5-8 record and a higher ERA of 5.03. His performance has been average at best, making him vulnerable against a Braves lineup that features Austin Riley, who has been particularly hot lately. Over the last week, Riley has recorded 8 hits with 2 home runs and a .364 batting average.

The Braves are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 4.81 runs. Given their strong bullpen, ranked 7th in MLB, they may have the edge needed to turn the tide and secure a crucial victory in this series.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Frankie Montas will have the handedness advantage against 7 opposing bats in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Rhys Hoskins is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Milwaukee Brewers batters jointly rank 26th- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Over his last 3 games started, Charlie Morton has seen a sizeable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2247 rpm over the whole season to 2175 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Whit Merrifield's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 85.1-mph figure last season has fallen to 83.1-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Adam Duvall pulls a lot of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 96 games (+26.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 77 games (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 89% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.1 vs Atlanta Braves 5.51

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.