Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/6/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Bryce Elder - Braves

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On August 6, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will host the Milwaukee Brewers in a pivotal National League matchup at Truist Park. Both teams are in the hunt for playoff positioning, with the Braves sitting at 60-51 and the Brewers at 62-49. The Braves are having an above-average season while the Brewers are performing well, both vying for a favorable spot as the season progresses.

The Braves are projected to start Bryce Elder, who has had a challenging year with a 2-4 record and a troubling ERA of 5.67. While Elder ranks as the 103rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating an average performance, he has been unlucky, as shown by his 4.04 xFIP, suggesting he could improve going forward. On the other hand, Colin Rea of the Brewers has been more effective, boasting a 9-3 record and a solid 3.59 ERA, but his 4.44 xFIP indicates he may not sustain this level of success.

Offensively, the Braves rank 15th in MLB, with their best hitter Matt Olson heating up recently, recording 5 hits, 4 runs, and 5 RBIs over the last week. Meanwhile, the Brewers feature Garrett Mitchell, who has been a standout, posting a .556 batting average and a 1.333 OPS in his last five games.

The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting an average expected scoring output. The Braves, with a current moneyline of -135, have an implied team total of 4.50 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to score. Given the matchup of Elder against Rea, the Braves may have the upper hand, especially considering their strong bullpen, ranked 7th in MLB. This game promises to be a close contest as both teams look to gain momentum in the final stretch of the season.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colin Rea to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (7th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Sal Frelick has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.8-mph dropping to 77.4-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 7.1% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers makes them the #25 squad in the league this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Bryce Elder has relied on his sinker 5% more often this year (42.8%) than he did last year (37.8%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna's true offensive talent to be a .349, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .052 gap between that figure and his actual .401 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 105 games (+27.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 110 games (+12.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+13.90 Units / 44% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.79 vs Atlanta Braves 5.56

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