Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction & Picks 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 14, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight in the playoff race. The Brewers hold a slender lead over the D-Backs in the standings, sitting at 84-62 compared to Arizona's 82-64. Both teams have been performing well, with the Brewers enjoying a great season while the D-Backs are having a good one, making this series all the more critical.

In their previous game, the Diamondbacks fell short against the Brewers, who have been particularly strong lately. Arizona will look to bounce back behind right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who has had a mixed season with a 9-8 record and a 4.42 ERA. However, advanced statistics indicate that Pfaadt has been somewhat unlucky this year, with a better-than-average 3.65 xFIP. He projects to allow 2.4 earned runs over 5.3 innings, but his high hit and walk projections could pose challenges against a solid Brewers lineup.

On the other side, Milwaukee will counter with Tobias Myers, who has been effective this year with a remarkable 2.93 ERA. However, his 3.99 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression. Myers’ ability to keep walks low will be tested against the Diamondbacks' disciplined offense, which ranks 1st in MLB. The projections indicate that he might struggle to match his recent success in this outing.

Given the Diamondbacks' potent offense and the close matchup on the mound, Arizona's -135 moneyline indicates they are favored, despite a game total set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive game ahead. As both teams vie for playoff positioning, this clash promises to be thrilling.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

With 7 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected offense, Tobias Myers has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Sal Frelick's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 85.5-mph mark last season has fallen off to 83.1-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's 2556-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 97th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joc Pederson's true offensive skill to be a .353, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .049 deviation between that figure and his actual .402 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Brandon Pfaadt has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 23% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.46 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.94

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