Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Preview – 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • DL Hall - Brewers
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 15, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for playoff positioning. Currently, the Brewers lead the National League Central with an impressive 85-62 record, while the Diamondbacks are performing well in the NL West with an 82-65 record, solidifying their place as contenders. In their last matchup, the Diamondbacks fell short, and now they are eager to bounce back at Chase Field.

The Diamondbacks are looking to capitalize on their strong offensive performance this season, ranking 2nd in MLB in team batting average and 4th in home runs. Eugenio Suarez has been their standout hitter recently, boasting a remarkable 0.550 batting average and 4 home runs over the past week. Meanwhile, Ryne Nelson, a right-handed pitcher, is expected to take the mound for Arizona, bringing with him a solid foundation to build on.

On the other side, the Brewers have also had a potent offense, ranking 9th in batting average and 16th in home runs. William Contreras has been their offensive spark, showcasing a hot streak with a 0.368 batting average in the last week. DL Hall will be on the mound for Milwaukee, looking to keep the Diamondbacks at bay.

The leading MLB projection system sees the Diamondbacks as favorites for this contest, with high expectations for their scoring potential. The projections suggest the Diamondbacks could score 5.19 runs on average, compared to the Brewers’ projected 4.27 runs. With both teams vying for crucial wins, this matchup promises to deliver intensity and excitement.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, DL Hall is projected to throw 76 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of all pitchers today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Garrett Mitchell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen's curveball rate has increased by 5% from last season to this one (22.7% to 27.7%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Eugenio Suarez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 98.7-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.320 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .335 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.27 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.19

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