Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals Pick For 8/3/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers
  • DJ Herz - Nationals

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers visit Nationals Park to face the Washington Nationals on August 3, 2024, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the National League. The Brewers currently sit at 61-47, showcasing a solid season, while the Nationals struggle at 49-60, marking a disappointing year. In their last game, the Brewers secured a win against the Nationals, further solidifying their upper hand in this matchup.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start DJ Herz, a left-handed pitcher with a record of 1-4 and an ERA of 4.79 this season. While Herz has had a tough year, his 3.46 xFIP suggests he might be due for better outcomes. He faces Aaron Civale, a right-handed pitcher for the Brewers, who has a less favorable 2-7 record and an ERA of 4.92. Civale's performance has been below average, but his 4.23 xFIP indicates he, too, may be on the verge of improvement.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 25th in MLB, struggling particularly with power, as evidenced by their 29th ranking in home runs. This contrasts sharply with the Brewers, who rank 11th overall and 5th in batting average, suggesting a significant advantage for Milwaukee at the plate. The Nationals' best hitter over the last week, James Wood, has shown some promise, hitting .444 with a 1.232 OPS, but the overall team performance remains a concern.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, reflected in the Nationals' +115 moneyline and the Brewers' -135. This matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors, especially considering the Nationals' potential to outperform expectations given their recent struggles.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among every team today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.8) may lead us to conclude that Andruw Monasterio has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 5.8 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

DJ Herz has averaged 13.8 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 6th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Juan Yepez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Riley Adams has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 103 games (+9.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 74 games (+7.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 away games (+7.75 Units / 39% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.15 vs Washington Nationals 4.34

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