Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Pick For 8/22/2024

• Date: August 22, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers face off at Busch Stadium on August 22, 2024, in an important National League Central matchup. Both teams enter the game with differing trajectories; the Cardinals sit at 62-64, having an average season, while the Brewers boast a strong record of 73-53, indicating a great season. The Cardinals are looking to improve their standing, while the Brewers are in solid contention for the playoffs.

In their last game, the Cardinals won 10-6 in 10 innings thanks to a walk-off grand slam in extra innings. Miles Mikolas is expected to start for St. Louis, and while he has the ability to eat innings, his ERA of 5.41 and ranking as the 129th best starting pitcher in MLB indicate that he's had a challenging season. Mikolas's projections show he tends to allow 2.5 earned runs, which could be problematic against a potent Brewers lineup that ranks 10th in MLB offensively.

Freddy Peralta, the projected starter for Milwaukee, has been a bright spot for the Brewers. With a solid 4.00 ERA and ranking as the 27th best starting pitcher, Peralta projects to allow just 2.3 earned runs. Given that he has a strong strikeout rate and the Cardinals offense ranks 19th in MLB, it could be a tough outing for St. Louis hitters.

Interestingly, the projections suggest that both teams may have a close battle ahead. The Cardinals' current moneyline stands at +100, with an implied team total of 3.90 runs, while the Brewers are at -120, with an implied total of 4.10 runs. Given the offensive trends and starting pitchers' profiles, this game could tilt in favor of the Brewers, but it’s essential to remember the unpredictable nature of baseball.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to the average pitcher, Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 5.9 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#3-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas has relied on his slider 5.2% more often this season (29.5%) than he did last year (24.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 6.8% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #28 team in the majors this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+5.15 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.34 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.91

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.