Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Pick For 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On August 21, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium for the second game of their series. This National League Central matchup comes at a crucial time for both teams, with the Cardinals sitting at 61-64 and the Brewers boasting a strong 73-52 record this season. The Cardinals are contending for a Wild Card spot, while the Brewers are enjoying a great season.

In their last outing, the Cardinals fell 3-2 to the Brewers. Meanwhile, the Brewers have been a force, riding strong offensive capabilities that rank 10th in the league, highlighted by a 5th overall batting average.

The Cardinals will send Kyle Gibson to the mound, who has pitched 23 games this season with a 7-5 record and a slightly above-average ERA of 4.26. Notably, Gibson’s 4.97 xERA suggests that he’s been fortunate this year, indicating potential trouble moving forward. The projections suggest he will average 5.6 innings while allowing around 2.5 earned runs.

Opposing him is Tobias Myers, who has a stellar 2.81 ERA over 18 starts. However, his 4.10 xFIP indicates that he too might be riding a wave of good fortune. Myers projects to pitch about 5.0 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Cardinals have a 55% win probability compared to the Brewers’ 45%. This could suggest value in betting on the Cardinals, especially given their average offensive ranking and home-field advantage. A close matchup is anticipated, given the closely matched moneyline of -110 for both teams. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, it promises to be an intriguing contest.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Tobias Myers has been lucky this year, compiling a 2.81 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.55 — a 1.74 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jackson Chourio is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Milwaukee Brewers batters as a group grade out 24th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 7.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (90.2 mph) below where it was last season (91.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 89.7-mph mark last year has fallen off to 87.5-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 58 games (+3.05 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 119 games (+11.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+9.65 Units / 52% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.09 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.26

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