Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Best Bet – 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Brewers
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Cardinals, with a record of 61-63, are having an average season, while the Brewers, boasting a solid 72-52 record, are enjoying a great year. This matchup marks the first game of the series and is critical for both teams, particularly for the Cardinals as they look to make a late push for a Wild Card spot.

In their last outings, the Cardinals fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers by a narrow 2-1 margin on August 18, while the Brewers secured a shutout victory against the Cleveland Guardians, winning 2-0 on August 14. This recent success for the Brewers adds to their momentum, but they face a challenging matchup against Cardinals' right-hander Erick Fedde, who has been performing above average this season with a 3.40 ERA and a solid 8-6 record over 24 starts.

Fedde’s ability to limit walks (6.7 BB% this year) will be put to the test against a Brewers offense that ranks 3rd in the league in drawing walks. However, with the projections favoring the Cardinals slightly, they are expected to score around 4.25 runs, which is a solid number against Milwaukee's Frankie Montas, who has struggled this year with a 4.86 ERA and a 5-8 record.

While the Cardinals' offense ranks 19th overall, they have seen recent success from their best hitter, Alec Burleson, who has been consistent throughout the season. If Fedde can keep the Brewers' bats in check, the Cardinals may just have the edge in this matchup, despite the odds suggesting a close contest.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Over his previous 3 starts, Frankie Montas has generated a sizeable jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2367 rpm over the entire season to 2421 rpm of late.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (15.5) provides evidence that Jackson Chourio has had some very good luck this year with his 21.8 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Milwaukee Brewers bats collectively grade out 22nd- in baseball for power this year when using their 7.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per GS this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Paul Goldschmidt is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 6th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 101 games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+15.45 Units / 32% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.02 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.23

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