Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction – 9/12/2024

• Date: September 12, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Brewers
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

On September 12, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Oracle Park for the third game of their series. Currently, the Brewers sit comfortably in a strong playoff position with an impressive 83-61 record, while the Giants are treading water with a 71-74 mark, indicating an average season. Notably, the Giants secured a 13-2 victory in yesterday's matchup and will look for another impressive performance in this contest.

The Giants are projected to start Hayden Birdsong, a right-handed pitcher with a 3-5 record and a concerning ERA of 5.19. While Birdsong's 4.54 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, his struggles with control could present a significant challenge today, especially against a Brewers lineup that excels at drawing walks, ranking 2nd in MLB. Birdsong's high walk rate (15.0 BB%) could allow the patient Brewers offense to take advantage.

On the opposing mound, Frankie Montas is expected to take the hill for Milwaukee. Montas's 6-10 record and 4.69 ERA place him around average, but his performance is bolstered by being the 75th best starter in the league, according to advanced analyses. He averages 5.5 innings per start and is projected to allow only 2.4 earned runs, which is a solid number that could help keep the game within reach for the Brewers.

While the Giants' offense ranks 19th in MLB, their recent form has seen Matt Chapman emerge as their best hitter, contributing heavily over the last week. In contrast, the Brewers, with a 10th-ranked offense, have William Contreras leading the charge, making for a compelling matchup. Betting markets reflect this close contest, with the Giants currently set at +110 and the Brewers at -130 on the moneyline.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

William Contreras has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 9.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Milwaukee's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Mike Yastrzemski, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+5.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 81 of their last 145 games (+8.04 Units / 5% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 46 games (+17.90 Units / 36% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.17 vs San Francisco Giants 4.11

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