Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres Best Bet – 6/21/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Brewers
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers are set to clash on June 21, 2024, at Petco Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Brewers, boasting a strong 44-30 record, are having a great season, while the Padres are hovering around .500 at 38-40, indicating an average season.

San Diego will have the advantage of sending Dylan Cease to the mound. Cease, ranked as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, has been solid this year with a 3.95 ERA and a 6-6 record. His peripheral stats suggest he’s been slightly unlucky, with a 3.40 xFIP indicating better days ahead. The projections have Cease pitching 5.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and striking out 6.8 batters. These numbers should give Padres fans some confidence, especially considering the Brewers' offense ranks 15th in team home runs, an average ranking.

Milwaukee counters with Colin Rea, whose surface stats—a 6-2 record and 3.29 ERA—mask some underlying issues. Rea’s 4.51 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate this season and might struggle against the Padres’ 10th-ranked offense. The projections are less kind to Rea, expecting him to pitch 5.3 innings, allow 2.9 earned runs, and strike out just 3.3 batters. With the Padres ranking 5th in strikeouts least in MLB, Rea's low strikeout rate could be a significant disadvantage.

Offensively, both teams bring some firepower. The Padres are 2nd in team batting average and 12th in home runs, while the Brewers are 6th in both team batting average and stolen bases. Over the last week, Luis Campusano has been red-hot for San Diego, hitting .500 with a 1.667 OPS. For Milwaukee, Christian Yelich has been their standout, batting .318 with 3 stolen bases and a .900 OPS.

The bullpens could also play a crucial role. The Padres have the 8th best bullpen, while the Brewers’ bullpen is ranked 4th, both according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. These rankings suggest that late-game scoring might be at a premium.

Given the Padres are favored with a -150 moneyline and an implied win probability of 58%, they seem to have a slight edge, especially with Cease on the mound and their potent offense. However, the Brewers' strong season and capable bullpen make this a game worth watching.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brice Turang is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 9.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.3-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 92.6-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+4.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 73 games (+9.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+8.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.96 vs San Diego Padres 4.72

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